TJRSports NFL Picks Week 8
John Canton: It's week eight of the NFL season. As always I'm joined by Bret Clev and Mike Maloney to go over every game this week.
I have no elaborate intro this week except to say that my picks will be brief in some instances because I'm in a rush, but I can assure you Mike and Bret have a lot of opinions in their predictions as always.
Here are the standings, which I'm not pleased about!
Standings Straight Up After Week 7:
Bret 66-38 .635 (Last Week 12-1)
Mike 65-39 .615 (9-4)
John 64-40 .615 (8-5)
Bret's only game wrong last week was Buffalo losing to Tennessee. That moved him from third to first. I think it's pretty cool that we're all above a .600 win percentage though because if you're over .600 straight up you'll probably be near the top in a pool that you're in.
We all picked the Vikings to win on Thursday. We all got that wrong. None of us got the memo that they didn't feel like playing defense.There are thirteen games left this week.
Byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston
All game times are Eastern.
Carolina (1-5) at Chicago (5-1) 1:00 PM
Bret: What terrible timing for Newton and the Carolina offense. They desperately need a confidence game, and this Chicago Bears defense is not the team to get it against.
Newton is going to be harassed all night. The Bears D-Line is way too disciplined for the read option, and the Panthers can't go deep on anyone - let alone this cover 2. Unless it's a garbage TD like last week, I think the Bears keep another 2011 Darling out of the endzone.
Defensively, Carolina is without Chris Gamble in the secondary and Jon Beason in the linebacking core, leaving an already weak defense even weaker. Gamble was the best player in a secondary that was really Carolina's only saving grace. For the Chicago offense, this will be a fine-tuning game - used mostly to work on their offensive balance and maybe to try out some new things. Close-ish at half, but Chicago starts figuring out what they want to do in the second half and puts up 24 in the last 30 minutes. Chicago 34 Carolina 9
Mike: For those of you keeping score at home, the official hype train for the Chicago Bears has officially begun here in Chicago. See, the way it works is at some point in time some media publication will write an article debating whether or not this year's defense is as good as the 1985 Bears defense, the team that won the Super Bowl and is the team that all other Bears teams are compared to. So if Chicago puts together a good start to a season, it's a matter of when, not if, such an article will be written. Fear not, for the Chicago Redeye just posted such an article the other day. And for the record, no, they're probably not. This year's defense gets a lot of flash for returning turnovers for touchdowns, but those kinds of plays are mostly luck and great defenses aren't really much more likely to return turnovers for touchdowns than average defenses.
Speaking of not being as good as the original, it's always unfortunate when a rookie plays above his capabilities, as it would appear Cam Newton did last season. You set yourself up for ridiculously high expectations from everyone going forward, whether or not that's fair to you based on your skills. Now the Panthers struggles are not entirely on Newton, as the team has $50M invested in a fairly pedestrian backfield, and despite some hefty contracts handed out on defense they don't really seem to be able to stop anyone. But I did enjoy Ron Rivera's comments this week about changes and potentially needing to fire some assistant coaches. Because clearly the problem isn't Rivera.
Basically, where I'm going with this, is Bears win big. Chicago 34 Carolina 13
John: The Panthers just look defeated. Their passing game is awful and even though they paid a lot of money for their two running backs they can't run the ball very well either. Against this Bears defense I don't see them doing a whole lot. The Bears will roll. Bears 27-7
San Diego (3-3) at Cleveland (1-6) 1:00 PM
Bret: Maybe it's hubris, maybe it's a deep and unshakable hate of Phillip Rivers, but I'm calling for the upset here.
The last 3 weeks I've wound up watching a lot of Cleveland, and I always watch a lot of San Diego, and I just think Cleveland is playing better football right now. Offensively, they've found something in the passing game - and I don't see anything to lead me to believe San Diego can stop it. Of course having Richardson would make me a lot more confident, but I don't hate Hardesty as a running back either. Besides, you don't beat San Diego by running on them, you beat them by throwing deep on the seems. That's just what Weeden has been showing he can do.
Offensively, I think San Diego is in big, big, trouble. Ryan Matthews has yet to put together a string of games - or plays - really that makes me say "Wow, that guy!", and Antonio Gates resurgence 2 weeks ago had more to do with Denver's continued troubles in finding someone to cover a tight end, and not with his feet being 5 years younger.
Give me the Browns in a 4th quarter comeback that'll make the Factory of Sadness rock. Cleveland 24 San Diego 21
Mike: I'm so tempted to pick against Norv here. Brandon Weeden has been playing better, Cleveland's defense while not great has at least been able to force some turnovers this year, and they probably could have won last week if Trent Richardson had been closer to 100%. Man, so tempting. But I just can't do it. The Chargers are coming off a bye, and Ryan Mathews is playing much better now that he's healthy and has had some consistent reps. Even the West Coast playing the early game in the eastern time zone isn't enough to sway me. Which means I fully expect the Browns to win by 10 now. San Diego 27 Cleveland 23
John: The Chargers are three point favorites why? They're coming off a monumental collapse at home to the Broncos two weeks ago. They had their bye week and we're supposed to think they're better going on the road against a plucky Browns team? Records are deceiving. I think the Chargers are on the verge of imploding. Losing to the young Browns won't help them. Browns 23-20
Seattle (4-3) at Detroit (2-4) 1:00 PM
Bret: Tough, tough, game to call here. Can I pick a tie? I suppose the only way to break this down is strength vs. strength, and that's obviously the Seattle D vs. the Detroit passing game.
Looking at it that way, all signs point to Seattle. Detroit has the talent, but has been missing the chemistry, and has anyone questioned if maybe all that extra chub is causing Matt Stafford to have such poor footwork. (Insert *since JaMarcus Russell* joke here) I actually wonder if the loss of Burleson for the Lions might help their chances though - he's never been the most explosive player, and the extra chances for Titus Young and Ryan Broyles may breathe new life into the offense. Maybe next week though. It's a tough week to find that chemistry going up against #3 pass ranked defense (after facing #1 last week!).
Seattle won't be able to manage much offensively either, but they won't need to. Look for Sidney Rice to have a good game - Detroit doesn't have enough speed at any corner position to cover him. One long pass to put Seattle into position for a TD, one sustained drive, and 2 field goals - that should be enough to win Seattle this one. Seattle 20 Detroit 17
Mike: Crap. Two teams I like to bet against, what do I do? Detroit shouldn't be able to run the ball on Seattle, but should that really matter since Detroit is averaging less than 100 yards per game on the ground anyways? Nate Burleson is out for the season, but is there really any difference between Burleson and Titus Young? Outside of the city of Seattle shouldn't Detroit's defense have some success rattling the great Russell Wilson? I think the combination of Seattle playing on the road and playing in the early game out east is enough to get me to go with Detroit in this one. Detroit 20 Seattle 16
John: I don't like Seattle on the road. I think Detroit is better than their record even though it's quite obvious that Matt Stafford isn't the QB he was last year when he had an amazing year. Their lack of WR options other than Calvin Johnson are glaring. I just think they're a desperate team that will find a way to win against a rookie QB on the road. Lions 20-19
New England (4-3) at St. Louis (3-4) (In London, England) 1:00 PM
Bret: Man, the *In London* thing means almost anything can happen. Usually, I just want to look at stats, but this is another case where I think something outside the real of stats matters - mostly, that the New England coaching staff has taken this London trip before - successfully - and I'm sure that matters. (A 35-9 win over the Bucs in 2009) Despite being one of the youngest teams in the league, I think Belichick and crew get these guys on the right track to win in a game where energy levels will matter.
It doesn't hurt that St. Louis is lacking the weapons to exploit New England's awful secondary, and New England is pretty solid close to the line defensively.
New England will struggle a bit offensively, and won't manage another 35 point London trip, but they'll still manage to win a ho-hum sort of game. (Very similar to the Packers last week.) New England 23 St. Louis 14
Mike: This game is far more confusing to me than it should be. What are you supposed to do with this Pats team? They're 4-3, and you could argue that they were fortunate to beat the Jets last week after seemingly having a commanding lead over them late in the game. There are moments when they play like you'd expect them to, and the offense is in rhythm and they can gain yards at will. But it seems like lately there are so many more moments where they just look lost on offense, and defensively they're a mess. And I'm not really sure what they can do about it.
If this game were actually in St. Louis it would make me think twice about who is going to win. But off in England I'll take the better team, and despite the Patriots' struggles, that's them. New England 28 St. Louis 13
John: I marked out (wrestling term) when I saw that my favorite Rams offensive player Danny Amendola is officially listed as questionable for this game. I doubt he plays because the team has a bye next week (on my birthday!) and it's not worth the risk. Might as well let him rest for two weeks. It's inspiring to see that he is even on the practice field, though, so hopefully that could be a spark for the team even if he doesn't play.
I don't like that the Rams have a home game in London, but I understand why it happens. I'm just glad they are only doing it for one year. It would have been better for my boys to have a true home game versus the Pats, but what can you do? I think the Pats are the better team. The Rams will have trouble if the Pats go after rookie Rams corner Janoris Jenkins because the Packers went after him and they had success. The biggest problem for the Rams is that they get inside the 30 and they don't finish off the drives. Against a team like the Patriots you have to do that. Will they? Maybe, but I don't think they will score enough. The Pats aren't blowing teams out that much, though, so I think the Rams will cover the spread. Patriots 26-24
Miami (3-3) at NY Jets (3-4) 1:00 PM
Bret: Man, I have no idea who these New York Jets are? How are they continuing to score? How do they feel like the winners of that game last week despite the loss? And all without playing the Tebow card yet!
Still, when you go back and look at the earlier match up between the two teams, Miami deserved to win that game. Tannehill had a pick 6, Miami missed a field goal in over time, and Holmes was New York's MVP with 147.
Without Holmes, without Tannehill's first start jitters, I think Miami is - plainly - the better team here. Miami makes their field goals, they keep from turning the ball over, they keep the Jets offense in check and they rise to a wild card favorite at 4-3. Miami 23 New York 20
Mike: I'm sad, I was really looking forward to talking about the First Place New York Jets this week. While I could see the Jets playing off the momentum from last week's close loss to the Patriots, I think what's more likely is they will struggle to run the ball as well as they did against the Patriots, which will force Sanchez to throw more to perennial Pro Bowl receivers Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill. Add on the fact that Miami is coming off a bye and I like the Dolphins to pull off the slight upset. Miami 24 New York Jets 17
John: The Dolphins have a very good run defense. The Jets offense struggles if they can't run the ball. I like the Dolphins to stop the run and control the game. It will be a low scoring, boring game to watch. Dolphins 20-17
Atlanta (6-0) at Philadelphia (3-3) 1:00 PM
Bret: Eagles are 13-0 after a bye week under Andy Reid. That's a big enough streak to mean something. Atlanta is coming off a bye as well, so this should be a really well played game.
Still, I think the Eagles are playing for their lives here, and Atlanta is playing for, well, not much. Talent wise Philadelphia is the superior team as well in my books although that hasn't mattered much for them yet this season. They certainly have the personnel to match up with the Atlanta passing game.
One key to this game will be the involvement of LeSean McCoy because 21 and 20 rushes + receptions the last two games isn't nearly enough.
I think this will be the game of the week in terms of excitement and good football players making good plays. I just like Reid's record, and Philadelphia's actual talent level to shine through here. Philadelphia 27 Atlanta 26
Mike: Look, I don't buy Atlanta as being the best team in the NFC either, but man, does Philly get some great lines at home or what? I feel like all I've seen on Sportscenter this week has been discussion about whether or not Michael Vick should still be the QB of the Eagles, and yet here they are favored by 3 points against the only undefeated team in the NFC. Oddly enough I'd feel better about Atlanta's chances if they were 5-1.
I think it's one of those psychological things where you feel like teams without any losses are more vulnerable to a loss because of the mounting pressure of being undefeated. I'm assuming there's no actual data to support that thought process, but it's still there. Regardless, I have to take the Falcons to win here. Atlanta 30 Philadelphia 24
John: I'm going against the "Reid after the bye" theory. Sorry. I just am. Atlanta's coming off the bye too. I think the Eagles turn the ball over way too much and I don't trust them playing against a good team that can score in a lot of different ways. For Philly to win they have to win the turnover battle. I don't think they will. I also think the Falcons will feel disrespected to be 3 point underdogs in this game. The Eagles are overrated. Falcons win a high scoring game thanks to the efficient passing of Matt Ryan. Falcons 31-27
Washington (3-4) at Pittsburgh (3-3) 1:00 PM
Bret: This is my upset of the week. Washington controlled that game last week, and probably deserved to win it, and New York is a much tougher team the Steelers are right now.
I didn't see anything in the win against the Bengals last week to show me Pittsburgh is capable of beating good teams, and right now I think Washington is a pretty good team.
The Redskins continue to lack a serious pass rush, but right now Pittsburgh is really limiting themselves on deep balls anyway, so it doesn't really matter how much time Roethlisberger has, they're still not looking for the long ball - and Wallace is dropping everything thrown his way anyway.
I'm not sure what Pittburgh has in the running game right now - this never ending stream of 'meh' guys doesn't seem to be working out though. That's a long winded way of saying I don't think Pittsburgh is very good offensively.
Washington on the other hand has developed a really nice offensive identity. RGIII has thrown deep less than any QB in the league - and that's exactly what he should be doing - Shanahan has his zone running game humming right now, and when you throw in the pistol read-option stuff, it makes for a dynamic, mostly run, offense.
I think Washington controls the clock in this one - with something like 42 minutes with the ball - and grinds out a 'surprising' win here. Washington 24 Pittsburgh 20
Mike: Good game here. Both teams are trying to make the case that they're a playoff team. Pittsburgh was surprising last week in that they were able to run all over Cincinnati. That's not really surprising to learn that someone can run on Cincy, but it was more surprising that with Mendenhall and Redman out it was done by Jonathan Dwyer of all people.
Pittsburgh had a surprising amount of success given how poor their rushing numbers have looked this year. Washington will certainly be a tougher test in that facet. They're also going to have to figure out what to do with Robert Griffin, who is going to be much more of a headache to deal with than Andy Dalton. With Troy Polamalu set to miss yet another game, I think that's going to make things very tough on their defense.
I definitely like Washington to cover the spread here, as unless you are a really solid team I don't think you should be giving more than 3 points to Griffin and the line is PIT -4.5 right now, and I'll even take them to eke out the small win. Washington 27 Pittsburgh 26
John: I don't think either defense is very good. The Steelers will probably throw the ball deep against the Redskins defense that lost last week against the Giants because they're poor at defending the deep ball. Considering they have Mike Wallace to run those deep balls I think they'll put up a lot of points. I think the Redskins will too. Lots of points. Fun game to watch. Steelers 31-27
Jacksonville (1-5) at Green Bay (4-3) 1:00 PM
Bret: What's there to say here? Green Bay practices fine tuning their passing game and figuring out if Alex Green is the answer at running back. Green Bay may struggle defensively in the coming weeks, not not against Chad Henne and Rashard Jennings.
Jacksonville over Green Bay is like Middle Tennessee State over Michigan. Green Bay 30 Jacksonville 6
Mike: If Greg Jennings is going to have surgery and miss three weeks, I for one am glad that this game is one of the weeks. The Packers are also without the services of Charles Woodson for a while, which will probably hurt more from an on-the-field presence more than an actual drop off in skills, as Woodson really struggles in coverage these days, which is why he's one of the more penalized secondary players in the league. But fortunately it doesn't matter this week, they're playing the Jaguars at home, and not only that they don't have to face Maurice Jones-Drew either.
I'd stay away from the 14.5 point spread, because there are so many things that could happen with a line that big that could allow Jacksonville to cover, but this should be an easy, easy win for the Packers. Green Bay 38 Jacksonville 14
John: The Packers offense destroyed a good Rams defense last week. Now they play an even worse Jaguars defense that is also the worst team offensively in football. This won't be close. Packers 42-6
Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (3-4) 1:00 PM
Bret: Indianapolis is going to be the sexy pick here, and I hope they win the game - I have dreams of Indianapolis and Miami as wildcard teams - but I just think Tennessee is the better overall team right now - especially at home.
Hassleback is exactly what he is - one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league - which means he knows how to stay patient against a bad secondary, pick his spots, and keep from making mistakes.
Luck on the other hand, is much more likely to make a poor choice or two on the road against a division rival. I think that'll be the deciding factor in a close game. Tennessee 20 Indianapolis 17
Mike: Let the Chris Johnson fantasy rejuvenation tour continue! Looks like another week where Tennessee should be primed for another big game on the ground, as Indy's D isn't really stopping much these days. This is really kind of a nothing game, as neither team is really playing at a caliber that will get them into the playoffs, although I must say given what I've seen both teams I'm a little impressed that they've both managed to get to three wins thus far. I like, but don't love, Tennessee to win here given that they're at home. Tennessee 23 Indianapolis 16
John: Congratulations to Chris Johnson for joining the NFL this season since he seems to have disappeared last year and the first handful of games this year. I think these teams are pretty even in the sense that neither is a playoff team, yet they are both capable enough to score on a bad defense. Both have bad defenses. I'm going with the Colts for the win because I think Andrew Luck will connect with Reggie Wayne quite a bit and that will open up the rest of the offense. Colts 27-24
Oakland (2-4) at Kansas City (1-5) 4:05 PM
Bret: I have hitched my wagon to the Brady Quinn Express before (the McDaniels year in Denver). I know where that train leads. It's not pretty. Baring a 40 attempt 275 yard day from Jamal Charles, I can't pick Kansas City to win here. Ugly, ugly, football game. 5 picks combined for Quinn and Palmer. McFadden has another rough day. Oakland pulls it out in the end after a back breaking Quinn turnover. Oakland 16 Kansas City 13
Mike: Only two late games again this week, I certainly feel bad for whomever has to be subjected to this crapfest. Just two bad teams with no playoff future. I think Brady Quinn is still the QB in Kansas City, but really, who cares? Unless you have Jamaal Charles or Darren McFadden on your fantasy team I can't imagine why you'd want to watch this game. Oakland 13 Kansas City 10
John: Another week where Oakland is a second 4pm game when there are only two of them. That's painful. I don't want to pick Carson Palmer or Brady Quinn to win because they're both awful. I guess I have to pick one of them. I'll go with the Chiefs based on the idea that Jamaal Charles will carry the offense with a huge running game. Chiefs 24-13
NY Giants (5-2) at Dallas (3-3) 4:25 PM
Bret: How is this a pick 'em line? The Giants have plus talent at almost every group on the field. The Cowboys have...a lot of potential at receiver?
Offensively, Dallas is once again hurting on the front line, and may be down to Phillip Tanner to play RB. That creates plenty of opportunity for the Giants to get their pass rush going.
Without Sean Lee, Dallas is missing its jack-of-all trades linebacker who can hold a defense together. They're going to miss him in this game, the rest of the year and apparently for the rest of his career perhaps?
Romo gets flustered, turns the ball over on a bad decision or two, New York gets their offense rolling in the 2nd half (as always). Giants win. New York 27 Dallas 20
Mike: I'm a little surprised the Giants are only favored by 1 here. I know it's a divisional game and it's in Dallas, but the Giants have to be the clear favorite in this game. Honestly, after the Cowboys offense sputtered against the Panthers last week, and by the sounds of it DeMarco Murray is set to miss another game, I don't like Dallas' chances here.
Their defense is good enough, but now with Sean Lee out I don't know how much they can really rely on just shutting the Giants down and hoping their offense can get by. On the other hand, seems like it's been a while since Eli's really had one of those games. New York Giants 24 Dallas Cowboys 17
John: The big stat from this game is that the Giants are 3-0 in Dallas the last three years. They're also looking for revenge after Dallas dominated the Giants in the opener this season. Of course since that game the Giants have gone 5-1, are on a roll and look like they can beat teams in so many different ways. I just really like what the Giants are doing especially in the passing game. Eli Manning is on quite the roll. I'm not sure what Dallas is. If they win this game they're in the playoff hunt and they send a message to the rest of the league. It's huge for them. I like the Giants, though. They have more confidence and I see them continuing to play at a high level. Giants 24-21
New Orleans (2-4) at Denver (3-3) 8:20 PM
Bret: Now this is going to be a fun Sunday nighter! As a Jimmy Graham fantasy owner, I desperately hope he plays. As a Broncos fan, I hope he spends another week in New Orleans. He's the key to this game - Denver has struggled covering tight ends all year, and Graham will absolutely eat them alive going up the middle of the field. If he's anywhere near 100% in this one expect him to go off for 150+ yards and 2 TDs. Without Graham though New Orleans may struggle a little more than most people expect. Denver's corners have been playing man coverage quite well, and their safeties have done an excellent job covering those jump balls over the top. Without Graham streaking down the middle and running crossing patterns through the soft linebacking core, it may be tough sledding for New Orleans.
There's also about a 50/50 chance Denver comes out of the bye week absolutely roaring. I've felt bad for Manning at times over the last few weeks because he's done everything to win and his teammates have either A) not understood the terminology (Matthew Willis) or B) just been kind of awful (Special teams returners!), but when he gets on the same page with his receivers and they get going - they're rarely stopped. It's just a matter of being able to be on the same page for an entire drive. An extra week of practice to mesh could go a long way in finding that groove. Denver's got the easy part of their schedule coming up, they've had their extra week to work together. If they're going to make a move towards being an AFC contender, this is the game they make that statement.
I don't think it's that emphatic, but I think Denver gets the win at home and continues to build confidence. Denver 31 New Orleans 24
Mike: I haven't been able to come up with a legitimate reason to not take the over in this game. I don't care that it's 55.5, I'm pretty sure both teams are scoring at least 25 points, so you're only talking about another 6 points. Drew Brees has been playing much better as of late. He's pretty much a lock for 3-4 TDs unless it's an elite defense, which Denver is not.
While the Broncos have struggled some against the better teams in the league, the Saints' defense is still terrible, so I don't see Peyton Manning having any problem moving the ball downfield. As someone who owns Manning and Brees in my fantasy leagues, I'm pretty excited for this game. I think Denver wins here, but I'm not sure they're covering the 6 point spread given the Saints' potent offense. Denver 38 New Orleans 34
John: There will be a lot of points, but I think Denver is the superior team. Due to two road games plus the bye week, this is the Broncos home game since week four. Their schedule the rest of the way is pretty favorable. I think they're about to go on a big roll the rest of the way. The Saints defense is atrocious. I know most people think Peyton Manning will be the big story here and I'm sure that he will have a nice game, but I think the running game of the Broncos will be impressive as well. If you have Drew Brees on your fantasy team don't worry. He'll still throw a lot and get two or three TDs. The Broncos will score more though. Broncos 37-24
San Francisco (5-2) at Arizona (4-3) 8:30 PM (MON)
Bret: Who's backing up Skelton at the moment? Cause he might want to be ready. Arizona has the worst offensive tackles in the league, no running game, and a QB who holds onto the ball too long. San Francisco is coached by a bully. They're going to push Arizona around. Skelton's going to know what Kolb went through against St. Louis and the black and blue NFC West is going to continue to kick each other's butt.
San Francisco may struggle offensively, but the Arizona passing D has certainly showed some holes the last few weeks. They'll do what they do - and probably get Davis a lot more involved this week.
Man, I can't wait for the upcoming 9ers/Bears game. The thing I'm most enjoying about this season is watching those two defense beat the heck out of people. I'll enjoy it again Monday night. (Well, Tuesday morning my time, but you know what I mean!) San Francisco 17 Arizona 6
Mike: What will be fun after this week when Arizona is 4-4 is how no one will really be surprised about it at all. Maybe we can also get some fun spread covering shenanigans like last week when Jim Harbuagh declined a penalty taking away two points from his team so that he could just kneel the ball and get the win. That allowed Seattle to cover the spread by a point or point and a half depending on what you got the line at.
I'm not talking much about the game because I don't really give Arizona much of a chance. I think it could be a close game, but ultimately the Cardinals don't have the tools necessary to beat the Niners. You need a running game that will allow you to control the clock, and you need to get out to a lead to force San Fran to throw the ball. I don't expect either of those things to happen. San Francisco 19 Arizona 7
John: Ugly game to watch. I know John Skelton played well last year for Arizona to end the season, but this year he's been pretty awful. Their run game is pretty bad and they have a tough time moving the ball down the field. I'm sure playing at home on a Monday will help them, but I just think the Niners will have another boring NFC West win like last week's 13-6 game against the Seahawks. This loss will put Arizona at 4-4 after a 4-0 start. Seems about right to me. 49ers 17-10
The Degenerates Dungeon
This is where we give you some picks for our best bets of the week. Note that lines moves from the time we write this (Friday AM) to the time the games kickoff. We keep track of the odds and we'll use that to write down our records too.
Records so far:
Mike 17-13 (2-3)
Bret 14-14-2 (3-1-1)
John 15-20 (1-4)
I suck. Two weeks in a row with 1-4 there.
I was 12-1 last week. Who needs spreads!?!?
1. Oakland over Kansas City +113
Make money off Brady Quinn as a favorite while you can!
2. Miami over New York +113
I had Miami as a 1 point favorite before I saw the line. No reason to take 2.5 points when you think they're going to win.
3. Seattle over Detroit +121
Simply a better team than Detroit right now. Take the extra juice and ride the dogs!
4. New York Giants (-1)
They are a much better team than Dallas at this point in the season, if you took away the names they'd be a 5 point favorite. Bargain.
5. Indianapolis +3.5
I know I picked Tennessee to win, but I'd say that's a 50/50 shot, and whichever way it goes, there's a pretty good chance it comes down to a field goal. Take the solid extra half point on that line and pray for a close game.
New Orleans @ Denver Over 55.5 - Two really good offenses, one really bad defense, I'm all about the over.
Washington +4.5 @ Pittsburgh - I believe in RGIII.
Atlanta +3 @ Philadelphia - I also believe in undefeated teams over Mike Vick and Andy Reid.
San Diego @ Cleveland Over 44 - You know what Cleveland loves? Giving up points.
Carolina @ Chicago -9 - Seriously, Carolina sucks.
Two straight 1-4 weeks for me. Maybe you should bet against my fave five. Up to you!
Carolina @ Chicago -9 - Even at 14 I'd consider the Bears. At 9 is a great number.
Washington @ Pittsburgh Over 47 - I have it 31-27 Pit, so yeah I like the over a lot.
New Orleans @ Denver -6 - Really like the Broncos at home and off the bye.
San Diego @ Cleveland +3 - Chargers seem to heading in the wrong direction.
Jacksonville @ Green Bay -14.5 - Big number? Don't care. This won't be close.
I'm going with three home teams that I think are really good and clearly superior then their opponents. Keeping it simple.
That's all from us for this week. Follow us on Twitter:
You can also email John Canton at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions